Do I copy the rounded folder and modify any files in that folder? Please advise
As the rounded template is installable you'd simply copy it, alter its names, alt its xml, and then install it. This would give you a new custom copy of the template. You'll basically replace "round" with "round2" for example (edit PHP/XML filenames as well).
If you release a new cbplug_cbsubstemplate_rounded-E.zip, how will I know what to change to keep up-to-date?
You'll need to use a DIFF program such as Winmerge, etc.. to diff the files and see what's different between them.
Also can you advise me about the .png files? If I halve the horizontal size of the currentplan_bg.png image using Adobe Photoshop, for example, will I be able to halve the widths and background-positions in cbpaidsubscriptions.css widths?
No idea as I did not develop the template. It's likely just reducing its width will do the trick.
You talk in your promotional material about "Rounded template improvements (psd layer, new red icon, etc.)" - is the psd available to users?
Yes, in the images folder of the rounded template.