Then I recommend trying the below and see how that works for you.
Code:
if ( ! $variables['var2']->getPublished() ) {
return;
}
if ( is_array( $variables['var3'] ) ) {
return $variables['var3'];
} else {
return $variables['var2']->getRecipients();
}
Should work for new and update cases. Aside from that you may need to consider setting User to Query and forming your own query against _comprofiler_plugin_activity_notifications to determine who you want to notify exactly.